Lenny Bruce Is Not Afraid

November has been, at least thus far, a month of surprises.

You know that curse on the Chicago Cubs? Surprise! They won the World Series.

Didn’t I just see a Facebook post on a local norovirus (aka the stomach flu) outbreak? Surprise! I temporarily had to rename myself Vomitola Khomeni – and finally found that button I ate when I was three…

Hey! Do you remember all those polls that showed Democrat Hillary Clinton easily winning the White House? Surprise! Donald Trump is the 45th President of the United States.

Oh, and of course you recall all the dire predictions for the stock market should Donald Trump win the presidency? Surprise! The Dow Jones Industrial Average was trading in record-making territory a mere two days later.

To be honest, while I did spend much of the first part of the week “enjoying” my virus-induced weight loss opportunity, I also, if somewhat dimly and feverishly, realized that collectively we have done a terrible job of predicting recent events.

I know many in the financial industry had to have been stunned and dismayed by the election results. According to an October 26, 2016 article in Fortune, Trump raised $239,250 from hedge fund and private equity firms, while Hillary Clinton raised $45.2 million from the same groups. Charles River Ventures, a Silicon Valley venture capital firm even went so far as to entitle a blog posting “F*CK TRUMP.” Even though Republicans in other races enjoyed healthy and widespread financial industry support, it just wasn’t there for Trump.

As a result, for many people, last Wednesday morning must have seemed like the end of the world (as we know it). And while I didn’t notice any birds, there were even “snakes and aeroplanes” for any still doubting the seriousness of the situation. (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/nov/08/snake-on-a-plane-passengers-flight-mexico-city) 

So where do we go from here? How does the investment industry successfully navigate the new normal and survive and thrive in a new world order? Here are a few thoughts I had that may help investors and managers both do good while they do well.

One: Don’t Say Or Write Anything That Endangers Your Current AUM

This was a contentious election. Combative. Testy. Belligerent. Factious. Antagonistic. Insert every single synonym for “unpleasant and argumentative” you can come up with here, because no matter how you slice it, the 2016 political campaign was a dumpster fire, starting with the Republican and Democratic primaries and continuing through the general election. It. Was. Not. Pretty.

As a result, there are a lot of very strong post-election feelings on both sides of the aisle.

And as we extend our personas over Facebook, Twitter, Blogs, Instagram and other platforms, there has simultaneously been a reduction of social restrictions and inhibitions known as the “Online Disinhibition Effect.”  It makes us more likely to say, write or post things that we likely wouldn’t have before.

When you combine those things – deep disappointment, hurt feelings and increased disinhibition – you end up with an improved likelihood of offending someone, inadvertently or otherwise. And when you seriously offend a client or prospect in this industry, your AUM suffers.

So lock down your Facebook account if you post politically on it. Don’t assume you know what someone’s views may be unless they’ve actually told you what their views are. In fact, to the extent that politics and social issues don’t impact your investment strategy or portfolio, don’t talk about them in professional settings. At all. Better safe than sorry because it’s easier to keep a client/investor than to acquire a new one.

Don’t believe me on this one? Ask Matt Maloney, who’s firm, GrubHub, suffered share price losses of 9.4% in the two days after the election over a leaked internal communiqué. Shut. It.

Two: Consider Diversity In Hiring and Investing

This election cycle has been, at least in part, about disenfranchisement. Trump likely won the election due to the disenfranchisement of the white, working class rural voter, while those who fear pending disenfranchisement (minorities, women, immigrants, LBGTQ) have fueled protests post-election.

The good news for investors and money managers is that inclusion will ease disenfranchisement, and it can also make everyone richer, too. Here’s how:

• Deszo & Ross studied the effect of gender diversity in the S&P 1500 and found that “female representation in top management leads to an increase of $42 million in firm value.”
• Orlando Richard found in his study that for “innovation-focused banks, increases in racial diversity were clearly related to enhanced financial performance.”
• Catalyst found that Fortune 500 companies with the highest representation of women board directors had significantly higher financial performance than those that don’t.
• Morningstar found that mixed-gender mutual fund teams outperformed single gender teams.  
• The HFRI Diversity Index (+4.21%) has outperformed both the HFRI Fund Weighted (+3.59%) and HFRI Asset Weighted (1.31%) indices for the year to date through October.
• In a paper by Stanford professor Margaret Neale, diversity and intellectual conflict proved good for organizations. “When…newcomers were socially similar to the team, old team members reported the highest level of subjective satisfaction with the group’s productivity. However, when objective standards were measured, they performed the worst on a group problem-solving task. When newcomers were different, the reverse was true. Old members thought the team performed badly, but in fact it accomplished its task much better than the homogenous group.”
• Diversity includes “Functional Diversity” or “the extent to which individuals frame problems and go about solving them.” As a result, age, background and life experience should also be considered aspects of the diversity equation.

Certainly, in a rapidly changing world, having better problem solving skills and potentially better returns has to be a good thing, right? So cast a wide net when hiring staff or money managers going forward to maximize your cognitive alpha.

Three: It’s Still A Great Time To Focus On ESG Factors

So, early reports have the newly-elected administration throwing out both the Environmental Protection Agency and the CFPB, as well as doing away with Dodd-Frank, among other regulatory changes. While it’s too early to know whether and when that can or will happen, there are a few things we do know:

• 49% of high net worth (HNW) millennials (yes, they exist!) say that social responsibility is a consideration in investing. 53% of all millennials agreed. 43% of HNW GenX also consider social responsibility in investing. Due to demographic shifts in the workplace (these groups of workers are now larger than Boomers) and the looming generational wealth transfer, it probably makes sense to develop products that cater to these interests sooner rather than later.
• Bauer, Frijins, Otten and Tourani-Rad found “well-governed firms significantly outperform poorly governed firms by up to 15% a year” in their paper “The impact of corporate governance on corporate performance: Evidence from Japan.”
• A Wharton paper from 2012 shows a “positive association between corporate governance and performance…and evidence that higher corporate governance leads to an increase in cash dividends.”
• Exxon spent $2.1 billion cleaning up the spill from the Exxon Valdez, which, while recoverable, ain’t great for a company’s bottom line.
• Wells Fargo’s recent governance gaffe could cost the company up to $4 billion in revenue.
• GrubHub’s “hostile workplace” internal email has led to a boycott and a drop in share price.

It seems reasonable that ignoring ESG factors can cost you both potential returns and clients, and possibly increase portfolio risks. And even if there aren’t dedicated regulations or government bodies watchdogging, it also seems reasonable to assume that many investors (and the markets) WILL still care.

Four: Don’t Make Any Sudden Investment Moves

The Sunday before the election, I had a sudden Han Solo moment (“I’ve got a bad feeling about this…”) and decided that I needed to think about buying an inverse S&P ETF. I gave myself 24 hours to ponder and ultimately decided to stay my current course and not change anything in my investment portfolio. Lucky me, right? That single choice would have cost me. Bigly.

Humans want certainty. In a study published in Nature Communications, knowing there is a small chance of getting an electrical shock causes more stress than knowing you’ll be shocked.

Shocking!

But seriously, when you’re feeling uncertain about your investment strategy, take a moment. Take a walk. Take a breath. Take a sip. Take whatever step back you need before making any sudden investment decisions. Whether you’re an investor or a money manager or just a Star Wars fan with a retirement account, it’s important to remember that we generally invest for the long-term. Don’t risk your long-term goals chasing short-term “certainty.”

As for me, I’m taking my own advice. Right after I get back to my 80s roots, dig out my mismatched Converse high-tops from the very back of the closet, and have a 3-minute R.E.M.-party to dance it out. I invite you all to do the same.

Sources: http://fortune.com/2016/10/26/trump-hillary-clinton-hedge-fund-campaign-finance/

http://seekingalpha.com/news/3223875-grubhub-minus-5_8-percent-following-ceos-anti-trump-commentary

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-diversity-makes-us-smarter/

http://www.catalyst.org/media/companies-more-women-board-directors-experience-higher-financial-performance-according-latest

http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/ResearchPapers/Fund-Managers-by-Gender.pdf

https://www.hedgefundresearch.com/family-indices/hfri#

https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/insights/diverse-backgrounds-personalities-can-strengthen-groups

https://www.ncwit.org/resources/how-can-organizations-recruit-diverse-talent-ways-promote-innovation-and-productivity/how

http://fic.wharton.upenn.edu/fic/papers/12/12-14.pdf

http://www.evostc.state.ak.us/%3FFA=facts.QA

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/24/wells-fargo-fallout-could-tally-4-billion-dollars-in-revenue-up-to-30-percent-customer-drop-study-says.html

https://www.ucl.ac.uk/news/news-articles/0316/290316-uncertainty-stress

Can You Describe The Ruckus?

A tragic thing happened to me last week. I was (gasp!) ma’amed.

No, not maimed. Ma’amed.

While dealing with a very unfortunate chimney repair at my humble Nashville cottage, my two, rather incompetent, repair technicians called me ma’am. Not once. Not twice. But 37 times in one conversation.

It was like having a cold dose of mortality thrown in my face.

Even though I still have the sense of humor of a 12 year old, being ma’am bombed let me know that I have officially hit middle age, which coincidentally may also explain why my “give-a-damn” broke about two years ago as well. They do say, after all, that only little kids and old people tell the truth.

But my brush with ma’am-dom did make me start to think about how the investment industry may change going forward, what with a heaping helping of Millennials headed our way. After all, according to a 2014 Millennial survey by Deloitte, the next generation will comprise 75% of total workforce by 2025. Boomers and Gen X – gird your loins.

Changes That May Be A’Comin’

1)   Socially Responsible Investing Will Surge – Although percentages vary from survey to survey, and between income groups as well, one thing is very clear: Millennials are much more open to socially responsible investing than prior generations. In one study of high net worth investors’ attitudes towards socially responsible investing, nearly half of Millennials considered social responsibility when making investment decisions compared with a mere 27% of seniors. In a study of all investors, Morgan Stanley’s Institute for Sustainable Investing found Millennials to be more than 10 percentage points more likely to favor sustainable investing than their Boomer counterparts.

(C) 2016 MJ Alts. Data Source Morgan Stanley Institute for Sustainable Investing

This attention to social factors is likely to boost both the number of products launched to pursue some form of socially responsible investing (ESG, Impact, Mission, Socially Responsible, etc.) and to simultaneously increase the demand for said products. As of year-end 2013, one out of every six dollars invested in the U.S. was already invested in SRI strategies (according to the US SIF Foundation), but it is safe to assume that the demographic shift will accelerate this trend.

The upshot? You might want to get ahead of this trend sooner rather than later.

2)   Our Historically Paper and PDF Industry Will Evolve – As luck would have it, I had not one, but two chances to feel old last week. I was speaking with a friend of mine who was extolling the virtues of Tinder. She loved the speed of the “dating” service and the ability to judge people quickly. I then lamented that I missed the days of a good old personal ad.

“You mean like Match.com?” she asked.

“Um, no,” I said. “ I mean like the ones that were in the paper and alternative news in Nashville. You know, Single White Female, blah blah blah…”

“Oh!” she exclaimed. “You mean like on Craigslist.”

“Noooooo,” I said. “I mean printed, paper singles ads. My favorite appeared in the back of the Nashville Scene one day and read ‘Single White Male, fat, ugly and bald, seeks Asian women with long toenails.’ People had to be creative and witty and not just post shirtless bathroom pictures….”

She blinked at me blank-faced in response.

Most Millennials don’t know a world without the Internet or iPhones (or as I like to call them, secular rosaries). Instagram, Pinterest, Twitter, Uber, AirBNB and all sorts of social and disruptive technologies have been at their fingertips (literally) for most of their lives. I can only hope that this comfort with technology leads to some revolution in the investment industry, which has long been dependent on pitch books and PDF one-pagers. I’m not sure what the answer is for this (and God save us from a Tinder app for investments where appearance is everything and substance & due diligence are lost), but there has to be some better ways of doing things than the way it’s been done for the nearly 18 years I’ve been in this space.

3)   The Traditional Pathways to Fund Management May Evolve – Does anyone remember the kid that applied to 2,000 private equity firms last year in order to skip an investment banking stint? Have you read any of the many articles on how to get hired into private equity/hedge funds/ venture capital straight out of undergrad? What about the gig economy? Job hopping? Millennial requirements for work-life balance? No matter how you slice it, the bios of next generation fund managers are likely to look pretty different than what we’ve grown accustomed to in the past.

I’m sure there are plenty of other ways that the industry may evolve in the next 10 years or so, but you can bet I’ll be ruminating on at least these possibilities going forward. At least until the re-release of Pretty In Pink hits theaters next weekend. I’ll be hanging with Duckie that day.