I love this time of year. The airport delays. The wonky weather. The smell of burning dust in the heating vents. Snow panic that empties grocery store shelves of white bread and whole milk, even if the temperature is stubbornly in the 40s.

Oh, and the look of shiny hope on the faces of fund managers everywhere. 

Ahhhh.....

But before conference season road trips get too far underway, it's probably a good idea to think about where managers are spending their (finite) fund raising resources and where they could ease up on the gas. 

(c) MJ Alts

(c) MJ Alts

As we commence another year of the great capital raising dance, I thought it would be fun to channel all of the back and forth, yes and no, hide and seek frustration into a little game. One that harkens back to a happier and simpler time, and one that anyone who has ever been under 12 or over 60 is familiar with.

So yes, ladies and gentlemen, this year we're gonna play a little Capital Raising BINGO. Simply print out the appropriate investor or fund manager card below and mark off (and date) each time you get a designated response.

The first investor who gets a BINGO can draft me as a single-use meat shield at an event.

The first fund manager who gets a BINGO will also get a prize, custom tailored to the fund in question. 

Happy capital hunting! And may the BINGO odds be ever in your favor!

(c) 2017 MJ Alts

(c) 2017 MJ Alts

(C) 2017 MJ Alts

(C) 2017 MJ Alts

When I was a young lass in Nineteen Never Mind, I used to spend Christmas Day with my mom and the week after Christmas with my dad. He would come for my sister and me in Tuscaloosa, Alabama and drive us all the way to Ft. Worth, Texas for another week of holiday overeating and unwrapping.

It was about a 12-hour drive, door to door, but we tried to make the best of it. My sister, stepbrother and I would clamber into the “way back” with a cooler full of Cokes,bags brimming with healthy snacks like Pop Rocks, potato chips and Slim Jim’s, nestled securely next to my Dad’s Coors that he snuck over state lines, Smokey & the Bandit-style. There, we’ll loll about (with no seatbelts), stuffing our faces (not dying from the Pop Rock/Coke combo) and alternate singing, sleeping and snarking at one another for the entirety of the 12-hour trip.

At some point, we would inevitably get on my Dad’s nerves. There would be over-the-seat, disjointed swats, strong language and finally a threat to “TURN THIS DAMN CAR AROUND AND TAKE EVERYONE HOME.”

We kids thought that was super funny. 

What wasn’t hilarious, however, was 2016 - an epically craptastic annum bad in so many ways that it even made Mariah Carey’s New Year’s Rockin’ Eve performance look apropos.

So, while 2017 is still barely warm, I thought I’d give it a little, tiny warning.

If y’all pull the same stunts this year that you did last year, I’ll turn this year around and take us all home. At the very least, I’ll figure out how to off everyone using nothing but Pop Rocks and warm Coors. You get me?

What am I talking about specifically? Well, here are some of my key investment industry pet peeves from 2016:

Looking in the same tired places for returns, and then pretending shock when they don’t measure up – Investors from Kentucky to New York and a few states in-between reduced or redeemed their hedge fund portfolios in 2016, based in large part on lackluster “average” returns. While many point to “average returns” in the neighborhood of just under 5% though November, perhaps it’s best to look at how the best (and worst) performers are faring. Articles have shown top performing hedge funds gained 20% or more through November 2016. And over the four quarters ending 3Q2016, top HFRI decile funds gained 29.54%. The bottom decile funds lost 15.57%. So there are funds that have performed strongly over the last 12 months IF an investor was willing to look for them and perhaps take risks on lesser known, newer, nicher or funds otherwise “off the beaten path.” It kind of reminds me of the old joke “Doctor, doctor, it hurts when I do this…” How ‘bout in 2017, we stop doing that, lest it continue to hurt.

Using “averages” to talk about investment funds, particularly alternative investment funds – Speaking of, with the kind of return dispersion above, why don’t we stop talking about “average returns” full stop. Even when it comes to white-bread mutual funds, getting fixated on “average” returns doesn’t really help. How do I know? One of the top, non-indexed US mutual funds returned 30% in 2016. Yeah, I said 30-freakin’-percent, more than twice the return of the S&P 500. But by fixating on “average return,” no matter what the asset class, investors may in danger of writing off entire investment strategies based on normalized returns that don’t accurately represent reality. In 2017, let’s focus more on the opportunities unveiled by return dispersion and less on pesky averages, shall we? Oh, and the same thing goes for fees discussions, too.

Saying you want to hire diverse talent, but complaining that you “just can’t find any” – So I’ve heard (or read about) more than one asset management firm complain about how they’d “love to hire women and minorities” but they “just can’t find qualified applicants”, and they’re not willing to lower their standards. Come. On.

Women comprise 50.8% of the U.S. population according to the Census Bureau. Minorities make up nearly 23% of the U.S. population. Do some simple math on the number of women and minorities in a population of 323,127,513 and it boggles the mind that there are ZERO qualified diverse applicants.

Indeed, when I read or hear this, one of a few questions generally comes to mind:

  1. How homogenized is this person’s personal network and how might that impact other investment research and decisions?
  2. How much effort does this person put into finding diverse candidates? Do they contact recruiters who specialize in the area? Do they go to conferences put on by 100 Women in Hedge Funds, NASP, the NAIC, and others?
  3. If there is a pipeline problem in this person’s line of work and they genuinely want to fix it, what are THEY doing to fix this issue in the long-term? Do they bring in diverse interns? Diverse entry-level positions? Do they promote these individuals?

Inappropriate benchmarks – Why, oh why, do we benchmark every damn thing to the S&P 500? It’s become so pervasive that I just caught myself doing it above (the top performing mutual fund invests in small caps, not S&P-level stocks) and I know better. Just because it’s well known, and just because it’s been crammed down our throats by everyone from consultants to financial advisors, doesn’t mean it always fits. Small cap fund? Ixnay on the S&P-ay. Hedge funds? Can’t be expected to outperform in bull markets because they are HEDGED. Private equity & venture capital – comparing illiquid investments to a liquid benchmark seems a bit silly, no? So in 2017, let’s either agree to benchmark appropriately so we can make a sober decision about whether an investment has performed well (or not) OR let’s just decide to sell everything and invest only in the S&P 500, since it’s where it’s at, obviously.

Communicating inappropriately – This may be just a “me” thing, but in 2016 I noted an increasing number of asset managers who text investors. What. The. Actual. Hell. Texting is informal. Texting is immediate and insinuates you deserve an instant response. Texting invites typos. Texting doesn’t allow for compliance review or disclaimers. Unless you are meeting someone that day and need to say you’ll be late, early, or identifiable by the rose in your lapel, or unless that investor has given you express permission to text, don’t. The investors I know who put their mobile numbers on their cards are coming to regret it. And if you lose that, you’ll only spend more time waiting on callbacks.

So cheers, all, to a happy, healthy, prosperous, properly benchmarked 2017. May we lose fewer of my 80s idols and more of our investing bad habits.

 

Sources:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-29/hedge-fund-agonistes-not-even-donald-trump-can-ease-the-pain

http://www.valuewalk.com/2016/12/new-hedge-fund-launches-fall-total-capital-increases-record/

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-12-29/the-year-s-top-stock-picker-didn-t-follow-the-news

https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045216/00

Photo credit:

Copyright: <a href='http://www.123rf.com/profile_artzzz'>artzzz / 123RF Stock Photo</a>

It’s that time of year again. The leaves are turning pretty colors. Kids are back in school. There is a real possibility of leaving my air-conditioned Nashville home without my glasses fogging upon hitting the practically solid wall of outdoor heat and humidity. And like any good Libra lass, I’m celebrating a birthday.

That’s right, it’s time for my annual orgy of champagne, mid-life crisis, chocolate frosting and introspection. Oh, and it’s time to check the batteries on the smoke detectors – best to make sure those suckers are good and dead before I light this many candles.

One of the things I’ve noticed in particular about this year’s “I’m old AF-palooza” is how much time I spend thinking about sleep. On any given day (and night), I’m likely to be contemplating the following questions:

  1. Why can’t I fall asleep?
  2. Why the hell am I awake at this hour?
  3. How much longer can I sleep before my alarm goes off?
  4. Why did I resist all those naps as a kid?

I even bought a nifty little device to track and rate my sleep (oh, the joy’s of being quantitatively oriented!). Every night, this glowy orb tracks how long I sleep, when I wake, how long I spend in deep sleep, air quality in my bedroom, humidity levels (in the South – HA!), noise and movement. 

To sleep, no chance to dream

To sleep, no chance to dream

Yes, I’ve learned a lot about my nocturnal habits from my sleep tracker – for example, I move around 17% less than the average user of the sleep tracking system, I’m guessing due to having two giant Siamese cats pinning me down - but the one thing I didn’t need it to tell me was that I SUCK at sleep.

I’m not sure when I went from “I can sleep 12 hours straight and easily snooze through lunch” to “If I fall asleep RIGHT NOW I can still sleep 3 hours before my flight….RIGHT NOW and I can still get 2.75 hours…1.5 hours….” but it definitely happened.

I don’t drink caffeine. I exercise. I bought a new age aromatherapy diffuser and something helpfully called “Serenity Now” to put into it. I got an air purifier, a new mattress and great sheets.

But no matter what I try, I am a terrible sleeper.

I’ve concluded that it must have something to do with stress. I do spend an inordinate amount of time thinking about life, the universe and everything, so perhaps that’s my problem.

So in honor of my 46th year on the planet, I decided to compile a list of the top 46-investment related things I worry about at night. They do say admitting the problem is the first step in solving it, after all.

In no particular order:

  1. $2 trillion increase in index-tracking US based funds, which leads me to…
  2. All beta-driven portfolios
  3. Short-term investment memory loss (we DID just have a 10 year index loss and it only ended in 2009…)
  4. “Smart” beta
  5.  Mo’ Robo – the proliferation (and the dispersion of results) of robo-advisors
  6. Standard deviation as a measure of risk
  7. Mandatory compliance training - don’t I know not to take money from Iran and North Korea by now?
  8. Spurious correlations and/or bad data
  9. Whether my mom’s pension will remain solvent or whether I have a new roommate in my future
  10. Politicizing investment decisions
  11. Did I really just Tweet, Blog or say that at a conference?
  12. Focusing on fees and not value
  13. Robo-advisors + self-driving cars equals Skynet?
  14. Going through compliance courses too quickly & having to do them over again
  15. Short-term investment focus
  16. Will I ever have to wait in line for the women’s bathroom at an investment event? Ever?
  17. Average performance as a proxy for actual performance versus an understanding of opportunity and dispersion of returns
  18. The slow starvation of emerging managers
  19. Is my industry really as evil/greedy/stupid as it’s portrayed
  20. Factor based investing – I’m reasonably smart – why don’t I get this?
  21. Dwindling supply of short-sellers
  22. Government regulatory requirements, institutional investment requirements and the barriers to new fund formation
  23. “Chex Offenders” – financial advisors and investment managers who rip off old people (and, weirdly, athletes)
  24. The vegetarian option at conference luncheons – WHAT IS THAT THING?
  25. Seriously, does anyone actually read a 57-page RFP?
  26. Boxes...check, style, due diligence...
  27. Tell me again about how hedge fund fees are 2 & 20…
  28. The markets on November 9th
  29. The oak-y aftertaste of conference cocktail party bad chardonnay
  30. Drawdowns – long ones mostly, but unexpected ones, too
  31. Dry powder and oversubscribed funds
  32. Getting everyone on the same page when it comes to ESG investing or, hell, even just the definition
  33. Forward looking private equity returns (see also: Will my mom’s pension remain solvent)
  34. Will my investment savvy and sarcasm one day be replaced by a robot (see also: Mo’ Robo)
  35. After the election, will my future investment jobs be determined by my membership in a post-apocalyptic faction chosen by my blood type?
  36. How many calories are in accountant-provided, conference giveaway tinned mints? (See also: conference chardonnay)
  37. Why are financial advisors who focus on asset gathering more successful than ones that focus on investment management? #Assbackward
  38. Dunning Krueger, the Endowment Effect and a whole host of ways we screw ourselves in investment decision making
  39. Why divestment is almost always a bad idea
  40. Active investment managers – bless their hearts – they probably aren’t sleeping any better than I am right now
  41. Clone, enhanced index and replication funds – why can’t we just K.I.S.S.
  42. The use of PowerPoint should be outlawed in investment presentations. Like seriously, against the actual law - a taser-able offense.
  43. Will emerging markets ever emerge?
  44. Investment industry diversity – why is it taking so looonnnnggg?
  45. Real estate bubbles – e.g. - what happens to Nashville’s market when our hipness wears off? And is there a finite supply of skinny-jean wearing microbrew aficionados who want to open artisan mayonnaise stores that could slow demand? Note to self, ask someone in Brooklyn….
  46. Did anyone even notice that hedge funds have posted gains for seven straight months?

Yep, looking at this list it’s little wonder that sleep eludes me. If anyone can help alleviate my “invest-istential” angst, I’m all ears. In the meantime, feel free to suggest essential oils, soothing teas and other avenues for getting some shuteye.

 

Sources and Bonus Reading: 

Asset flows to ETFs: https://www.ft.com/content/de606d3e-897b-11e6-8cb7-e7ada1d123b1

Recent HF Performance (buried) http://www.valuewalk.com/2016/10/hedge-fund-assets-flows/

HF Replication: http://abovethelaw.com/2016/10/low-cost-hedge-fund-replication-may-threaten-securities-lawyers/

Average HF Fees: http://www.opalesque.com/661691/Global_hedge_funds_slicing_fees_to_draw_investors169.html

Political Agendas & Investing: http://www.njspotlight.com/stories/16/10/03/murphy-adds-plank-to-platform-no-hedge-funds-in-pension-and-benefits-system/

Asset Gathering vs. Investment Mgmt: http://wealthmanagement.com/blog/client-focused-fas-more-profitable-investment-managers

World's Largest PE Fund: http://fortune.com/2016/10/15/private-equity-worlds-largest-softbank/  

Spurious Correlations: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-14/hedge-fund-woes-after-u-s-crackdown-don-t-surprise-sec-s-chair

Short-Term Thinking - 5 Months Does Not Track Record Make: http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/14/venture-capitalist-chamath-palihapitiyas-hedge-fund-is-outperforming-market.html

 

Every time I turn around, I find a manager looking for seed capital. Many are frustrated with what I like to call "second dollar syndrome" - the fact that everyone seems happy to be the second dollar in your fund, but few want to commit the first dollar - and dream of a seed investment as a way out of the fund raising drudgery.

If you're on the early-stage capital trail, it can be helpful to understand the nuance of seeding and acceleration capital so you know better when to hold 'em and when to fold 'em, know who's 'bout to walk away and who's there to fund. So here are a few pointers that apply to seed and accelerator capital (even if it just says seed in some spots for brevity's sake) that I hope lead you to your own vat of miracle grow.

(c) 2016 MJ Alts

(c) 2016 MJ Alts